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Pulwama: Should India Pull-A-Whammy?

in the wake of the horrible attack and killing, of Indian soldiers in the Pulwama area of Kashmir, people across the globe have been calling for retribution.  I’m not here to preach peace, that’s the last thing I (or any outraged Indian) want. However, we have to realize that while an all-out war will wipe out Pakistan it will  also affect a portion of India.  This is not what we need. What the Prime Minister has done is admirable.  He’s gotten the major global economic powers, like France, Japan and the USA to back him while other countries are falling in line.  Our friends from Israel have backed us in the event of any war, which I hope never happens for the above reason alone.  Having said that, India needs to hurt the neighbor where it hurts the most, the survival of an economy.  The value of their currency tells you how badly their economy is doing.

While the Indian Rupee is at around 0.014 USD, the Pakistani Rupee stands now at 0.0072.  To put that in perspective, while I could get around 70 Rs for every dollar in India, I would get nearly twice that in Pakistan.  How does that affect the economy, would be the question.  This ridiculously high number signifies an inflation rate of 5.83% while the inflation rate in India stands at 2.11%.  The price of food is nearly two and a half times more expensive there than in India as also the two other economic markers, clothing and housing (for those that can afford to buy houses).  The major employment avenue in that country is the clothing industry which accounts for about 24% of their exports.  A majority of this export is to the west where superstores sell them, sometimes at discounted prices. The next biggest employer in this fragile economy is the Army.  Imam Tawhidi, from Australia, rightly said “Most countries have an Army.  In Pakistan, the Army has a country.”  In order to sustain the army, money needs to be generated.  This comes from countries like Saudi Arabia which have over 10,000 soldiers imported to protect the Saudi Royalty.

The economic blunder that India has avoided repeating in the past 4-5 years is to export human resources. Programs like Make In India, Start Up India and the likes have ensured a constant inflow of foreign exchange as well as employment, albeit in specialized areas.  This has helped India in getting foreign exchange reserves of about $750 Billion.  Compare this to a situation, a few years ago, when India had to put up gold as security to buy goods! Also compare this to the neighbor’s reserves of $24 billion and you will see where the economic advantage lies.
Strategically, India has done well to get Russia’s support (from decades earlier) to negate any interference that China might be thinking off, while to the west Israel stands ready to jump in. pakistan’s immediate neighbors to the west, Iran and Afghanistan, have also shown a dislike for them. Pakistan feeling the “noose tighten” is definitely working in India’s favor.

Kashmir is not an international problem, like Pakistan would have us believe.  This was abundantly clear at the UN as also when the ex PM of that country visited the US and asked the then president to assist with.  Mr Obama made it clear that it was not for the US to get involved in Kashmir, an Indian state.  It didn’t go too well with the Pakistani delegation. Many other countries have similarly declined to get involved in this “dispute.”

The desperation is beginning to surface in Pakistan visible in their many attempts to mollify, complain, threaten India, all at the same time. An economic embargo on that rogue nation would probably wipe them out and that is exactly what is needed.

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